Jun 9 2009

Electronic Exposition: Tapas Style

Last week we stood witness to the coming and going of the newly resurrected E3 Expo (though the name Electronic Entertainment Expo shouldn’t really need another “Expo” at the end when truncated). The consensus, overall, was that it was good to have the grand ole celebration and excess back again, and that many, many good games could be found on the show floor. After having listened to, watched, and read a large amount of coverage, here is what I have taken away from this year’s E3, in as brief a manner as I could write it. (Read: long as fuck)

Going Through the Motions

Obviously we must address Project Natal, the oddly-named but altogether stunning motion-sensing technology revealed by Microsoft at their media summit/press conference/whathaveyou. First, a disclaimer: with all of the motion technologies, be they from Microsft, Sony, or Nintendo, there is a limit to what is feasible and within that a limit to what is practical. Nintendo offers the option in Punch-Out!! to let the player use the Wii remote NES-style, wand-and-nunchuck-style (with motion sensing), or with the balance board, which will detect your dodges. The last two methods have been reported to present odd feedback in the player’s movements, often to the detriment of his ability to play the game, and as such the first method, where only buttons are used to play the game, is considered the most practical. Still, the options are welcomed by the intrepid among us, and some even prefer the balance board or waggle+wand controls over the NES-style. Point being, while the industry and the hardware providers may be obsessed with bringing us a new take on interactivity, in the majority of cases this new format of game-playing can only be applied as either an option (PS3 games toggling use of SixAxis controls are another great example), or as a control input for a very strictly defined, limited gaming experience (Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Mario Kart Wii).

Take for instance the talk from both Microsoft and Sony of their respective technology’s ability to interpret one-to-one motion. The Wii only just achieved this (at least, is assumed to have) today with the release of Wii Motion Plus. But when Sony and Microsoft pitched this idea, they talked of using in ways Nintendo has carefully avoided: throwing fireballs in RPGs, holding your sword and shield, fighting with virtual enemies, etc. Nintendo has only ever tried to implement motion into combat with quick flicks of the wrist. Why? Because games are built upon systems of repeated actions — the old Bungie “30 seconds of fun” argument. To stand before your TV and swing and block attacks like a wildman not only makes you look like a total cad to whomever might catch you in the act, but it will also straight-up wear your ass out.

To put it simply, I think Microsoft has achieved something triumphant in its vocal and facial recognition, and it has the potential to harness a new level of immersion should it layer this technology into games. I do not think, however, that asking players to set down their controller and instead grasp at the air is what people want, or need, from this new style of game playing. History proves that simplicity will always be the victor, and as with Punch-Out!!, sometimes it is easier to press A than have to tell your character to kick someone in the junk. In that respect, I think Sony is wise to have chosen to expand on their available technology, the PlayStation Eye, and keep a controller in players’ hands. Nintendo also chose to keep that physical tether to the screen intact, and has met with resounding success.

What Sony must consider, however, is how — unlike Nintendo — these new controllers are not the standard PS3 interface, and must likely be purchased in pairs if they are to be best utilized. Both companies will fracture their audience with their tech, but unlike Microsoft, Sony’s device seems like applicable to sedentary, non-gaming uses, such as menu-browsing, video chat, and the like. It is a controller, not an interface, and thus it will live or die by the the software support it receives. So while I don’t really prefer one solution to the other, it is clear that they are more different than they are similar. Personally, I think both companies have opened up a can of worms entering into the arms race against a well fortified Nintendo, and both will likely lose more than they gain. Then again, I have been wrong about this kind of thing before.

Microsoft Shows Its Hand

There were a fair number of games at the Microsoft conference, and a large percentage of them were exclusives or “exclusives”. Let’s get right to it. Splinter Cell: Conviction hit me like a taser shot to the genitals (again with the male genitalia jokes, what gives?), and by all means deserves all the plaudits it has so far received. While the demo didn’t really show us what the actual, boring parts of the game will be like, it did a lot to reignite interest in this Sam Fisher guy and made me, a series agnostic, want to find myself in front of a 360 this fall to find out what’s become of the poor man’s daughter. And the visual flourishes? Classic Ubisoft. At least among all the Wii-related refuse they are releasing their core development teams haven’t lost their edge.

Modern Warfare 2, on the other hand, got knocked for showing just what a boring part of the game might be like… and then for cutting some of that out. Oi, talk about not being able to catch a break. I, for one, found the demo very engaging and am eager to get my hands on the latest from Infinity Ward. Call of Duty 4‘s multiplayer is beginning to wear stale for me and World at War was never anything more than a diversion from Left 4 Dead. Which I suppose brings us to the next title shown. (Quickly: I am glad that at least one Activision game doesn’t require a plastic peripheral, and that IW has spun their series off from Call of Duty, so that Treyarch cannot get its grimy paws on it. Good for you, boys.)

Left 4 Dead 2. Breathe in deeply for a second. Did you smell some odd fragrance to the air, like a kerosene lamp burning? That’s the lather that thousands of Valve fanboys have worked themselves into at the announcement that L4D will be getting a full sequel in lieu of the traditional long-tail content drops Valve has graced other titles with, such as Counter-Strike and Team Fortress 2. Why the sudden change of heart? Money, no doubt, played a very large part. Why give away for free what you can charge full price for? We live in the era of DLC, where Resident Evil 5 comes with multiplayer on the disc but asks for you to pay a bit extra to unlock it. Where you can buy experience points or in-game money to save you the trouble of having to actually play the game to unlock or accrue these things. Where your virtual horses can, for a small earthly sum, be clad in the finest of armor. Can we really shake our fist at this one?

But let me be serious for a moment here. We all wanted the long-tail love for L4D, because we all love L4D. I think that people really wanted to do more with Louis, Bill, Francis, and Zoey. With the sequel, not only are we getting a new set of locations, we’re losing the focus on gunplay (in favor of the more strategic melee combat, it may not be a bad thing, but will change the balance and horde combat significantly), the night of the living dead has become day, and the missions all tie together. None of these things, by themselves, is a bad thing. However, because the first game was so successful, and its quirks and charms so adored, Valve could never have made a sequel such as this without incurring the ire of some portion of its fanbase. As a marketing student, I look forward to seeing how Valve presents this game to players of the first. Much like World at War, they will have to tread a fine line between encouraging players to move on from the first game (something Valve has never had to do before, to my knowledge; even CS 1.6 still has its hold-outs) and maintaining a level of trust with players that, no, we are not going to keep milking you every year — we wanted to refine the experience and this was the only way possible. Because if Valve is looking to make L4D more of a series than a touchstone, well, I don’t know if I’m ready to live in that universe just yet.

Moving on!

Halo: ODST and Halo: Reach. Bungie, you broke with Microsoft so that you could make more Halo games? Really? First of all, Orbital Drop Shock Troopers is the dumbest title for a game in a long while. Imagine: Babiez was heads and shoulders above you, since it at least gave us some great lulz. But ODST? How is mom supposed to remember that? She’ll just say “new Halo” to the clerk and be fine, I suppose. But still, DUMB ASS NAME. Also, you haven’t shown shit of the actual game, so I have nothing to say about this. Likewise for Reach. Next!

Forza Motorsport 3. Well this one sure does look pretty. It’s got some nice physics and a host of neat fan creation tools, too, like livery and video editing. But, I’ve never really cared for anything out of the sim-racing genre, aside from mandatory Gran Turismo purchases, so I’ll probably passing this one up. And Need For Speed: Shift? You guys really have the worst timing. I’m sorry. Other than that, most of the stuff we saw was third party, other than Alan Wake. From what I saw of that game, the concept sounds really fun, and the game looks great. But the actual mechanics and play on-screen looked way too familiar, and nothing in that demo popped out at me as being “omfg” material. I know this is a game a lot of guys in the press like to stoke boners over, but I haven’t quite begun to sip the Kool-Aid yet. Maybe as it gets closer to release.

Sony’s Shotgun Strategy

The worst part of Sony’s conference, aside from Kaz Hirai, was that they forgot or rather opted not to show some really great stuff. Unlike Alan Wake, Heavy Rain is totally in my wheelhouse. Multiple paths where your character can die or be injured in various ways, a crime story, investigation and environmental exploration… it’s too good to be true. Then I watch something like the extended demo on G4TV, and I know that it’s real, it’s coming, and I fucking want it.

Likewise, Sony stalwarts Ratchet & Clank were politely asked to remain visible only on the show floor. For a game that is looking to finally give the series that show in the arm that it needs, and as one of Sony’s staple brands, you’d think the guys at Insomniac would get a little more exposure. The time puzzle mechanics, which share the same central conceit as PSN game echochrono (to lazy to link), will hopefully do much to inspire the level designers, who had grown a bit lazy with their world construction since Up Your Arsenal. A stronger focus on platforming and puzzles will do much to please fans, and the inclusion of a more involving story will undoubtedly bring the game more Pixar comparisons, so long as the classic tongue-in-cheek humor remains intact. In short, I’m totally on board.

Likewise for Uncharted 2. Do I even have to say anything about this game? It’s all been said already: it’s fucking gorgeous, it’s funny, the online modes are a blast, and we’re all going to be enraptured by it when it comes out this fall. But the PSP go? Notsomuch.

Some people just don’t like the way it looks. A lot of people just don’t like the price (read: me). But truth is Sony’s on the right path with this one, and it’s doing what it needs to in order for developers to start supporting the platform again. I.e., it’s cutting out piracy as best it can. The only thing is, with an iPod touch going for $229 dollars, the PSP go isn’t really the right value proposition Sony needs. Unlike the TV market (or perhaps quite like it, given their fiscal statement), Sony cannot afford to play the “premium product” card anymore. It’s costing them would-be buyers who can go pick up a DS or 360 at much lower costs than the Sony systems. If Sony wants to be a competitor, they can’t keep acting like they are Nintendo. Sega thought it was hot shit back when the PSX launched, but the Saturn wasn’t exactly the hit they were hoping for. When it comes down to the brass tacks, it’s the install base that brings the software to the market, and the price is the barrier to entry. Sell the go for $199, and you’ve got yourself a helluva competitor.

Real quickly, the rest of the Sony stuff:
- MAG: not for me. For whom? I have no goddamn idea. Why isn’t Zipper making a new Syphon Filter again?
- The Last Guardian: Day one. Ueda is a genius and can do no wrong. I am enchanted by the trailer and cannot wait to play the game.
- GT5: lol vaporware. But seriously, it looks great. Can we get a release date?
- FFXIII: Want. Black guy seems like another case of Japan doing it wrong (RE5, hel-lo!)
- FFXIV: Same designer as FFXII makes me super happy. MMO? Notsomuch.
- God of War III: it looks like more God of War. By all means, that is perfectly fine by me. I get to pull Helios’ head off with my bare hands? Disgusting, but I will nevertheless relish the moment.

Nintendo Announces Mario Games, News at 11

Nintendo I can sum up rather quickly. NSMB for Wii will be an obvious purchase, as will Galaxy 2. They know this, I know this. Golden Sun was a pleasant surprise and had me wanting to track down a copy of GS2, which I never played, in anticipation of this new outing. I’m glad that they held off on showing a new Zelda, because I think they need to consider not only a return to cel-shading, but also what it was about the N64 titles that made the series such a killer. Twilight Princess suffered from a lot of failed ideas and an inventory with several one-shot items. Ocarina, on the other hand, always managed to keep your old items relevant, or at least never did anything to lower their merit. But it isn’t enough to take from the past to sculpt the future; Nintendo has a carve out new ideas for a new generation and for new hardware. I’ll gladly give them another year to get that done properly.

Really, the only concern or game that I felt the need to seriously mull over was Metroid: Other M. Team Ninja and combat go together like rice and beans, but Team Ninja goes with a lot of other, not so glamorous things, too. Large Breasts, horrible character design, and terrible plots come to mind. The trailer wasn’t enough to tell us much, other than this game looks to reinvent the 3D Metroid game. I don’t mind if the game has more action, or more visceral action anyway, but Retro’s games did a great job of maintaining the sense of isolation and lonely exploration of hostile alien worlds. Reflections in the visor when hurt or in the cold were only part of that special crafting, but already it seems like this is more of a Warrior Within than a Sands of Time. I will be following this one closely, though, with the hope that Nintendo keeps Itagaki’s old crew on a tight leash. If they can deliver a Samus that kicks ass but is also vulnerable and helplessly intertwined in the affairs of Space Pirates and Metroids, I’ll be as happy as the next guy. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Supporting Third-Party Support, and Closing Thoughts

As I wrap up, I come to two games that I have wildly differing expectations for. Brutal Legend is a game that wears its heart on its sleeve, and makes its inspirations well known to all simply due to the fact that they are all in the game. While Psychonauts sits near the top of my pile of shame, Grim Fandango was a delight I enjoyed well after it first came out, and I knew long ago that if the man behind that game were to craft another, I would most certainly be up for seconds. While Brutal Legend is a far cry from a sequel to Grim, the classic Schaffer hallmarks seem to be intact: humor, character design and personalities, inane madness, and a plot so original you wonder why no one had thought of it before.

Assassin’s Creed II, on the other hand, has me fingers-crossed for fear of another letdown. Despite the iconic style and open-world championing of the first title, the game fell apart as soon as you finished off your main target in each city. The side-missions, or rather the missions you were required to do to collect evidence on your target, were repetitive and uninspiring, requiring you to complete mundane tasks such as sitting on a bench and listening to people talk (the game’s lack of cinematic camera movement meant staring at the game world in all its middling glory) or slowly walking behind someone while pretending to pray just long enough for you to get next to them and steal an item. But the new game, with its Renaissance flair and Italian draping, is as big of a temptation as one can encounter outside of Amsterdam’s red light district. The graphics have that “come hither” sexiness that keeps your eyes glued to the action and the new gimmicks such as killing guards from inside a hay pile or taking out two sentinels at once with twin hidden blades beg for your forgiveness of the half-baked original — look, you can hear Ubisoft saying, at those old promises now delivered.

Unfortunately, I’m a cynically bastard. If there is any one thing to be taken away from E3, be it from the motion tech demos, the Modern Warfare 2 demo, the Splinter Cell demo, the Assassin’s Creed II demo, or even the Metroid: Other M trailer, it’s that this is, first and foremost, a show. And as this is a show, we should take everything with a strong helping of salt. Who knows what sort of smoke and mirrors and prestidigitation take place behind the spectacles unveiled before us. The beauty of an E3 demo, unless it is a level playable in its entirety, is that it can be cut from any one or even from several places in the game and stitched together to construct a truly breathtaking first glimpse of some of the latest and greatest offerings. So, yes, Assassin’s Creed II looks like it could right a lot of wrongs and prove itself to be the game we always wanted from Ubisoft, but the truth is seldom so kind. Last year Resident Evil 5‘s director promised that conceits were being made to Americans and that Gears of War-style controls would be adopted and that we hadn’t seen all the game had to offer… but that just meant that aiming was moved to the right stick and there was an underground lab you would eventually find yourselves in (shooting gatling gun-clad zombies!).

But all the same, I was happy with the quality of the third party offerings for all systems, and saddened that I will not be able to play many of the great early 2010 titles when I am out of the country next year. Overall, E3 was a great return to form, with some of the best coverage and most diverse array of titles we’ve seen in some time. Compared to FPS-heavy 2007 and 2008, it was nice to see E3 embrace some new (and some old) genres. And with titles like A Boy and His Blob and Scribblenauts showing that innovation and simple charm can still exist in small packages, there were plenty of hidden gems as well. The only downside to E3? Knowing that we have to wait until TGS this Fall for more big reveals and shameless strutting from the console makers.

Note: I apologize that these entries keep running so long, but when I can’t post often enough to deliver smaller articles, I end up lumping as much as I can into one post as possible. Next time, look for (hopefully) shorter entries on Resident Evil 5, and inFAMOUS versus Red Faction: Guerilla versus Prototype.


May 25 2009

2008: The Last Great Year for the Games Industry?

Last year, the video games industry saw record sales of over $30 billion in units of software sold. Compare to the last great year for software, 2004, that is an increase of over 50%. In addition, console makers pushed a record number of hardware units for each of their respective systems, with 10.77 million PS3s sold, 10.8 million 360s, and almost 25 million Wiis. This is without considering the enormous success found in the handheld market, where the DS is the fastest selling system ever and Sony’s PSP is doing markedly well in a field that, during the age of the Game Boy, was mostly uncontested. Even with the begin of a significant decline in sales of PS2 hardware, which did not receive a price drop to the sub-$100 mark until April of this year, it is evident that 2008 marked a new high in demand for video games and game hardware. The question we must now ask ourselves is, can it ever happen again?

The Secret Formula

The success seen in 2008 can be boiled down to a combination of several factors: a line-up of highly sought-after games released throughout the year, the maintenance of the PlayStation 2 as a viable and active platform, the short supply of Nintendo’s Wii for nearly an entire year, and the demand for new gaming experiences from the PS3 and Xbox 360.

2008 met with a great amount of hyperbole when in first began, according to some to even have the potential to eclipse the last unofficial great year in gaming, 2004. Grand Theft Auto IV was finally coming to market, along with Gear of War 2, Fable II, Resistance 2, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, Miyamoto’s strange new Wii Fit, LittleBigPlanet, Call of Duty: World at War, and a new Prince of Persia and the hope of, possibly, Gran Turismo or Killzone 2. Not all of these titles would ultimately end up having great sales success, and some, such as Dead Space, would catch us completely off guard at that summer’s E3 expo. Still, it was clear that the market would be ripe with highly anticipated new titles, particularly featuring franchises known to lurk the elusive casual gamer back to the couch for another go at his favorite series. GTA, Mario Kart, Wii Fit, and Gears of War 2 would prove to have the strongest of the individual game sales — each with multiple millions of units sold — and there was an unbelievable number of music titles (Rock Band 2, Guitar Hero World Tour) purchased as well. Truly, 2008 was a great time to be playing video games.

Also key to the strong success of the industry, only this time serving in a reserve role, was the PS2. With games such as SingStar and Buzz! available on the system, the PS2 became a very compelling party box/portable karaoke in 2008. The system also featured a few hardcore title releases, such as the stellar Persona 4, but was most impressive for its sales in another, more casual category: sports. Despite the next-gen glitz and effects work in the PS3 and 360 versions of FIFA, Madden, NBA, and MLB games, the PS2 maintained large sales numbers for all of the latest additions to these franchises. Clearly, the armchair quarterbacks once thought to be lumped in with the hardcore market have continued to make the economic decision to update their software for a system they already own (at a price of $50 rather than $60 for each title), instead of purchasing a $200-400 system to play them on. Considering that 2008 brought witness to one of the worst economic declines in America’s history, the logic certainly makes sense. Factor in the fact the HDTV penetration still has yet to rise to the level predicted by early analyst reports and you have a very clear proof-positive that the world still needed PlayStation 2 in 2008. The system sold nearly 9 million units last year, just shy of its successors, but increased its global install base to a whopping 140 million units. As any developer would tell you, you can’t just ignore that kind of established market. Surprisingly, however, no single PS2 game was able to make it into the Top 10 sales charts for 2008. The decline of a system will always be predicated by a fall in its software sales, and the data for 2008 shows that PS2 has likely seen its last meaningful year.

Nintendo Regains the Throne

In contrast, Nintendo could barely make enough of its Wii system to sate consumer demand, and the sales numbers for the system show. The company also found creative ways to extend the life and/or popularity of some of its titles, particularly through the bundling of a remote with every copy of Wii Play, a steering wheel with each copy of Mario Kart Wii, and the balance board with Wii Fit. The last of these is the most fantastic, however, as Nintendo proved to the world that it could sell a game and peripheral bundle at $90 and still have tremendous success. Of course, Guitar Hero and Rock Band also released numerous forms of bundled software and hardware that greatly exceeded this price, but neither could match the success of Wii Fit‘s whopping 4.54 million copies sold.

The X factor for 2008 was, undoubtedly, the Nintendo brand. Nearly all of their major software, aside from Wii Music, was met with both a positive critical response and a tremendous amount of consumer demand. Additionally, Nintendo was able to continue selling these titles to Wii owners beyond the traditional 6-week sales window. Mario Kart Wii and Wii Play, in particular, charted in the Top 10 for the remainder of the year, and continue to have a presence there today, a full year on since Mario Kart Wii was released. Unlike Sony and Microsoft, whose games feature strong sales that quickly taper off after hardcore users have purchased the items at or near release, Nintendo has found an audience interested in diving back into its catalog and purchasing older titles, which allows it to keep selling these games for full price while third-parties and Sony and Microsoft first/second-parties ultimately must drop the price of their titles to reignite sales. Gears of War, Resistance, and Halo are some of the only brands which were able to maintain premium pricing for over a year on these next-gen systems.

Why? While both console makers try to bundle their systems with the latest in either family-friendly or hardcore titles, Nintendo has chosen to include a very basic, but still fun, title with its boxed system since it first launched. The value of its brand as a software maker, and the relative ease with which the titles can be played (using a steering will, standing on a board, flicking a remote, etc.) not only keep the barrier to entry low, but they encourage word of mouth among a far larger audience than a traditional game might.

Dark Clouds Forming

Notice, however, that Super Mario Galaxy and Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, while both adored by fans and critics, are not in this list of successful titles. The hardcore game player that has been playing games for multiple generations is no longer the primary software buyer on the Wii. But even then, simple software titles published by third parties also fail to meet with any success. Last summer’s Boom Blox was a critical success, but failed to move more than a quarter of a million units when all was said and done. Its simple design and friendly styling should have sat well with the audience known to own the system, but it was passed over in favor of more copies of Mario Kart and Wii Fit. Likewise, hardcore titles such as No More Heroes, Madworld, and House of the Dead: Overkill have also been unable to inspire much interest on Nintendo’s system in the past year, and even GTA: Chinatown Wars on the DS has vastly underwhelmed when it comes to sales. The large, faceless audience of Nintendo owners, like an old fish, can’t be fooled by the developers lures and promotions. If the game isn’t Wii-branded, they aren’t biting.

This puts the casual gamer (not the lifestyle gamer, as we will brand the Wii-owner) in a bit of an odd position. With the PS2 soon to experience its last, sputtering gasps of life, where does that player go to enjoy the kind of experiences he has been accustomed to. The Xbox 360 is likely not to move below $199 for some time, nor will the Wii be budging from its $250 launch price. But while logic says that the Wii is the casual gamer’s console of choice due to its strong sales and key major titles, the control scheme and game lineup are actually far different than what the PS2 saw — save for the ports of PS2 and PSP games the Wii still sees. The Wii has become a sort of elephant in the room, both too large to ignore but yet too difficult to work with and find success. Designers are at an impasse: find a way to achieve the evergreen prosperity the Wii is seemingly capable of granting, or be stuck just producing expensive, resource-intensive software for the 360 and PS3, which may or may not be successful (EA has seen this with risks such as Army of Two and Mirror’s Edge, and even Sony first parties have had sluggish sales).

Another point worth pondering is what the next console cycle will bring with it and how long until those systems come to market. If Nintendo remains top dog as it appears it will, they have an incredibly wide array of options to take with their next system. Do they keep it underpowered and focus on controls? To they take a significant leap in graphical ability and open the system to features such as DVD or Blu-ray playback? Do they go digital distribution only? There are things about Nintendo’s past that cause me concern.

First is that when Nintendo has decided to release a new system, they utterly cease to continue supporting the previous one. Even when they claimed the Game Boy Advance would remain one of their “three tiers,” the system was swept under the rug within two years. Compare this to living in a time when Sony was on top, and the PSX and PS2 both had strong lives after their successors were released and you can imagine that the folks at Ubisoft, EA, and Activision must be a little nervous about what new hardware will mean for them.

Second is Nintendo’s history of being obstinate and behind the times with their products. Both the Wii and DS are devices far less powerful than their rivals, yet both manage to sell phenomenally better. The Wii is the first system Nintendo has released that does not use a proprietary format to play games, but even then the system is not capable of playing back a commercial DVD video release. Furthermore, Nintendo is almost always solely interested in Nintendo. The company will refresh its major franchises once or twice a console generation, but remains very inconsistent when it comes to creating new IP. This generation we have seen Wii Sports, Wii Music, Wii Fit, and Brain Age as new lines for the company, but the GameCube saw the creation of Pikmin and the resurgence of Metroid. Punch-Out!! is largely a remake of the former two titles, albeit a very good one, and it remains the only “core” title released by the company in over a year. Which brings me to another point:

Nintendo is slow. They take their time making games, and they’ll be damned if they work any faster because the fans are eager to buy them. The Game Boy Advance had about 6-7 years before it got replaced by the DS, and I’m sure that they’ll be stretching the Wii and DS to do the same, using slight hardware modifications (DS Lite, DSi, GBA SP, GBA Micro, etc.) to refresh the product line and pique consumer interest for longer than the internal tech should probably be expected to last. This is actually great for developers who can capitalize on cost savings later on in the console life cycle to produce games on smaller budgets without sacrificing quality, but it could also ultimately lead to a sense of stagnation.

Other reasons to fear that the games industry may see a weakening in its future is the ultimate failure of the PlayStation 3. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the console world needs a strong Sony to survive. Sony brought several things to the games industry with the Playstation, and all were changes for the better: the optical disc standard; its connections through the film and music industry provided new outlets for games to be sold through; a sizable new audience brought up on DualShocks and Final Fantasys; most importantly, it provided a slick and powerful entertainment device that wowed consumers and stayed price competitive with the latest offerings from established hardware providers.

That last point has now fallen to Microsoft’s Xbox 360, and it is unlikely Sony can reclaim the mindshare it has lost this generation, even if the rebranding and redesign of the PlayStation 3 are in fact forthcoming. But while Microsoft is content to collect Live subscriptions and collect franchises and developers once exclusive to Sony and Nintendo, Sony is still driving innovation and content. Flower, LittleBigPlanet, Uncharted, Wipeout HD, and Warhawk are all experiences exclusive to the small PS3 install base, but are tremendous titles that should be enjoyed by all. In the last generation, the PS2 was the system almost everyone owned, and the GameCube and Xbox were the sort of extracurricular systems hardcore gamers would pick up to get their Mario or Master Chief fix.

Now, Sony is still publishing a bevy of ambitious, quality product at a reduced marketplace, and the sales numbers show it. While Shadow of the Colossus was able to achieve a sales success ICO could not, it also did so on a system that had over 100 million units sold. Ueda-san’s next project, known only as TRICO now, will be fortunate to have the same success, on a system that costs far more to develop for and that has only a fraction of the user base. But the game will be released, just as will Heavy Rain, Uncharted 2, a new Ratchet and Clank, and more. Because unlike Nintendo, Sony has harvested a fantastic collection of first and second party studios, and they deliver consistently and in quality. So while Nintendo can happily sit back and count stacks of money, it will also express indifference when fans clamor for more of the games they love so much. Aren’t you happy with the Mario Kart you’ve already got? What do you mean Smash Bros. has broken online play? That game will last a decade! So on and so forth. Our new masters are, sadly, omnipotent but not omnibenevolent.

Hope Springs Eternal

My thoughts of Nintendo are dour and biased and overly critical, some will no doubt think, but I am not blind to the opportunities this new era of gaming has opening before it. Take, for instance, what Apple has brought to the table. The iPhone is our first portable, always-connected gaming handheld. With it, we can download new software or title updates anywhere we have service or WiFi, and new games are being added to its store by the minute. Already it has a library in the thousands, and the user rating system effectively allows the cream to rise to the top without Apple having to enforce quality content restrictions and QA each new title it approves. This is a bold, fresh take on gaming, and it is already leading to new approaches from Sony and Nintendo, the latter of whom has already released a WiFi-enabled DSi capable of downloading games on the go and the former who is expected to unveil a new, download-only PSP in a week’s time.

Further, we are about to witness whether or not third parties will sink or swim on the Wii. With EA’s new EA Sports Active title, we have the first polished, major release to compete with or supplement Wii Fit. Can mimicking Nintendo finally bring about strong sales numbers on a system where no third-party game other than Rock Band and Guitar Hero has been able to find sales success? I am sure a lot of people in the industry are hoping so, because so far even the kindest of reviews (hello, Zack and Wiki!) has not been enough to catch the attention of our lifestyle gamer. Which is sad, because the Wii is a fun system with a lot of potential to reignite interest in old franchises and genres. But then, I know two people whose parents bought a Wii and still have it in the box, and my system only gets dusted off every six months. I think that, by reaching for a new audience, Nintendo has found a sort of No Man’s Land where only knows how to survive. Brilliant, from a business perspective, but terrible if you’re the guy they’re doing business with.

Which seems to have also have been the case for the PSP. Stuck in 8-12 year old marketing hell, the console sells well enough but the game sales are utterly laughable. What exactly do people do with the thing? Sony’s plea will always by rampant piracy, but are kids savvy enough to really sit down and create pandora batteries and hack their firmwares? I’m not so convinced. A lot of it probably had to do with that fact that, when faced with a system almost as powerful as a PS2, developers were creating experiences too rich and elaborate for the portable space. Which is why Sony is in the midst of rebranding and rebuilding the device, and encouraging devs to give the system another shot, only this time with titles more like Patapon and Pixeljunk Monsters and less like Liberty City Stories. Will it work? I really hope so. The PS Store should have been there from the beginning, and hopefully a reboot will be just the kick in the ass the system needs to really shine. Making some of its already excellent back catalog available to download is a good start, but we need a lot more of it. Oh, and were are the downloadable PSX titles at, Sony?

Meanwhile, Microsoft and Sony plan to adopt a kill them with gorgeous games approach this year, as Final Fantasy XIII, Uncharted 2, Halo ODST, Alan Wake, Heavy Rain, and possibly a new Metal Gear will all be totally drop-dead looking and wow us all. They have both made unique uses of DLC and Marketplace/PSN Store games to bring users unique and experimental products, and I see both of them continuing this trend. As the industry slowly frees itself from the grip of retail, sales in this space will become nothing short of essential. Sony has taken bold steps in offering full PS3 and PSP games on its store, while Microsoft has sought to satisfy the complimentary needs of its users with a robust Netflix service. All of these are great reasons to consider purchasing either system, and will no doubt be marketed as such in the coming year.

The Big “If”

As for software, 2009 is again looking at a great lineup, but now its Achilles’ heel has been fully exposed. If we are to see another 2008 in this console generation, it will only come at the will of Nintendo. No matter how many quality titles are released this fiscal year on 360 and PS3, if Nintendo does not deliver on the titles they supposedly have waiting in the wings for this fall, 2009 will look like it was the year the recession hit, not 2008. The ball is in your court, Nintendo. Next week at E3, show us what kind of future lies in store for the industry. It’ll be like our own version of Groundhog Day, only the Groundhog knows what’s on the line this time.